A hawkish pivot from the Fed right at a time when the new Covid variant created more uncertainty wasn’t well received in the market.
The biggest surprise was not that Powell finally acknowledged that the term “transitory” inflation has passed its expiration date. After all, the Fed officials, including Vice Chair Clarida, have been shifting toward the more hawkish side in recent weeks.
The surprise was that Powell chose to make the shift at a time when omicron added uncertainties to both growth and inflation. This tells you that the default setting is for the Fed to accelerate the tapering at the December meeting, unless omicron really seriously starts to damage the economy in the next two weeks. In a big scheme of things, whether the Fed completes the tapering by March or June matters little. So, the Fed policy itself isn’t the biggest threat to the market. Ten-year yields at 1.4% are hardly a game changer.
The biggest surprise was not that Powell finally acknowledged that the term “transitory” inflation has passed its expiration date. After all, the Fed officials, including Vice Chair Clarida, have been shifting toward the more hawkish side in recent weeks.
The surprise was that Powell chose to make the shift at a time when omicron added uncertainties to both growth and inflation. This tells you that the default setting is for the Fed to accelerate the tapering at the December meeting, unless omicron really seriously starts to damage the economy in the next two weeks. In a big scheme of things, whether the Fed completes the tapering by March or June matters little. So, the Fed policy itself isn’t the biggest threat to the market. Ten-year yields at 1.4% are hardly a game changer.