The latest high frequency economic data reinforce the view that growth has lost some momentum after an initial turn higher. While net new virus cases decelerated as of late, the improvement comes at the expense of mobility, which has been roughly flat in recent weeks. Improvement in jobless claims has stalled, while payroll gains slowed. Despite the recent slowdown in activity rebound -- reflected in smaller gains in retail sales and industrial production -- GDP growth remains on track for an estimated 17% bounce in 3Q following a 32.9% plunge in 2Q.
Elevated virus cases and the back-to-school season bring unique risks. Delays in implementing executive orders for stimulus or a failure to reach a durable agreement in Congress would be an additional drag. #stocktalk
Elevated virus cases and the back-to-school season bring unique risks. Delays in implementing executive orders for stimulus or a failure to reach a durable agreement in Congress would be an additional drag. #stocktalk