Granted, vaccine availability for a large part of the population is only likely toward mid-2021. Nonetheless, markets tend to look several months ahead.
A combination of a Blue Wave, a large stimulus package worth more than 10% of GDP in 1Q, and a vaccine in 2Q would be unequivocally positive for stocks, credit and emerging markets. It would be negative for bonds, while the impact on the dollar may be mixed given any cyclical upside may be offset by twin deficits.
A combination of a Blue Wave, a large stimulus package worth more than 10% of GDP in 1Q, and a vaccine in 2Q would be unequivocally positive for stocks, credit and emerging markets. It would be negative for bonds, while the impact on the dollar may be mixed given any cyclical upside may be offset by twin deficits.