Signum: COVID Resilience
• US: In line with our earlier and still somewhat counter-consensus view, the US is among the top 5 best performers globally, in no small part thanks to its strong economic base (and in particular very low reliance on exports or commodities), as well as stronger-than-often-assumed medical capabilities.
• Worst developed markets: Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are among the bottom DM performers, due to a combination of “natural” (e.g. demographic) vulnerabilities and low socio-political (governance and social cohesion) scores.
• Best emerging and frontier markets:
◦ China thanks to above-average scores across the board, bar medical capacity.
◦ Indonesia because of favorable “natural” (climatic and demographic) conditions, as well as low dependence on exports.
◦ Thailand thanks to relatively robust scores across the board (for an EM/FM).
◦ India thanks to strong “natural” factors and relative economic resilience.
• US: In line with our earlier and still somewhat counter-consensus view, the US is among the top 5 best performers globally, in no small part thanks to its strong economic base (and in particular very low reliance on exports or commodities), as well as stronger-than-often-assumed medical capabilities.
• Worst developed markets: Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are among the bottom DM performers, due to a combination of “natural” (e.g. demographic) vulnerabilities and low socio-political (governance and social cohesion) scores.
• Best emerging and frontier markets:
◦ China thanks to above-average scores across the board, bar medical capacity.
◦ Indonesia because of favorable “natural” (climatic and demographic) conditions, as well as low dependence on exports.
◦ Thailand thanks to relatively robust scores across the board (for an EM/FM).
◦ India thanks to strong “natural” factors and relative economic resilience.