美联储会议纪要
• The Fed delivered its third straight 75 basis-point-hike and put out a much more hawkish dot plot that showed 125 more basis points of hikes this year (so a potential fourth 75-basis-point increase in November) and a terminal rate of 4.6%. Policy makers refrained from raising rates by a full percentage point at this meeting, with Powell noting that inflation data were somewhat mixed this summer.
• Policy makers substantially revised other economic projections and now see growth at just 0.2% this year, down from the 1.7% forecast in June. They now see the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% next year and inflation not falling to 2% until 2025.
• Powell said at the start of the press conference that his main message hasn’t changed since his concise and strong message at Jackson Hole. He said repeatedly that the Fed’s top job is to restore price stability, and that central bankers see that as a precursor for health in the rest of the economy.
• The Fed, both in the economic projections Powell’s the press conference, stopped short of indicating that a recession is imminent. Powell said growth will need to be below trend for a while, and labor markets will need to soften, but he refrained from being too forceful on the subject of economic pain. Delays in restoring price stability could bring “more pain,” he said.
• Financial markets had a volatile reaction, with equities and Treasuries tumbling after the hawkish set of policy forecasts before paring those moves. Stocks flipped between losses and gains as traders considered Powell’s message of “economic pain” against the chance that Fed might have today have presented its final hawkish pivot. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a record high.
• The Fed delivered its third straight 75 basis-point-hike and put out a much more hawkish dot plot that showed 125 more basis points of hikes this year (so a potential fourth 75-basis-point increase in November) and a terminal rate of 4.6%. Policy makers refrained from raising rates by a full percentage point at this meeting, with Powell noting that inflation data were somewhat mixed this summer.
• Policy makers substantially revised other economic projections and now see growth at just 0.2% this year, down from the 1.7% forecast in June. They now see the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% next year and inflation not falling to 2% until 2025.
• Powell said at the start of the press conference that his main message hasn’t changed since his concise and strong message at Jackson Hole. He said repeatedly that the Fed’s top job is to restore price stability, and that central bankers see that as a precursor for health in the rest of the economy.
• The Fed, both in the economic projections Powell’s the press conference, stopped short of indicating that a recession is imminent. Powell said growth will need to be below trend for a while, and labor markets will need to soften, but he refrained from being too forceful on the subject of economic pain. Delays in restoring price stability could bring “more pain,” he said.
• Financial markets had a volatile reaction, with equities and Treasuries tumbling after the hawkish set of policy forecasts before paring those moves. Stocks flipped between losses and gains as traders considered Powell’s message of “economic pain” against the chance that Fed might have today have presented its final hawkish pivot. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a record high.