What Would a Trump Win Mean for Assets?
With the Republican National Conference building to a close, what assets might benefit or suffer if President Trump is re-elected? Will stocks continue sharply higher and why? Will gold and silver continue to climb? What about the U.S. dollar as it sits near an important inflection point -- will it plummet or soar?
Perhaps the first point to consider is the Federal Reserve. While Trump used to berate Fed Chair Jerome Powell rather mercilessly on Twitter for not doing his job the way the President wanted, this has stopped since the Fed went “all-in” in March. Many market-watchers credit the S&P 500’s roughly 50% rise from the March low to this policy along with the dollar’s big decline and gold’s ascent. Could markets get bumpy into or after the election if the President becomes dissatisfied anew with the Fed?
Then there’s tax policy. Will stocks anticipate stable, lower taxes for a second Trump term after the sweeping reductions of 2017? Would this fuel fresh gains for equities? What sectors might benefit most? Some believe banks will avoid a potential 8% hit to earnings if Trump is elected. Is this enough to believe a true cyclical rally could take hold in 2021 and beyond?
And what about trade. If President Trump is re-elected, will the trade war with China worsen? Will tariffs increase? Would that slow the global economy and, in turn, hurt stocks? What about tariffs on European goods, or lumber and aluminum tariffs with Canada? Would all of these remain in place or might Trump become more relaxed on these issues?
Finally, and speaking of global relations, would a win by President Trump help aerospace and defense contractors as much as expected? And if yes, could this bear market sub-sector turn into one of 2021’s winners?
With the Republican National Conference building to a close, what assets might benefit or suffer if President Trump is re-elected? Will stocks continue sharply higher and why? Will gold and silver continue to climb? What about the U.S. dollar as it sits near an important inflection point -- will it plummet or soar?
Perhaps the first point to consider is the Federal Reserve. While Trump used to berate Fed Chair Jerome Powell rather mercilessly on Twitter for not doing his job the way the President wanted, this has stopped since the Fed went “all-in” in March. Many market-watchers credit the S&P 500’s roughly 50% rise from the March low to this policy along with the dollar’s big decline and gold’s ascent. Could markets get bumpy into or after the election if the President becomes dissatisfied anew with the Fed?
Then there’s tax policy. Will stocks anticipate stable, lower taxes for a second Trump term after the sweeping reductions of 2017? Would this fuel fresh gains for equities? What sectors might benefit most? Some believe banks will avoid a potential 8% hit to earnings if Trump is elected. Is this enough to believe a true cyclical rally could take hold in 2021 and beyond?
And what about trade. If President Trump is re-elected, will the trade war with China worsen? Will tariffs increase? Would that slow the global economy and, in turn, hurt stocks? What about tariffs on European goods, or lumber and aluminum tariffs with Canada? Would all of these remain in place or might Trump become more relaxed on these issues?
Finally, and speaking of global relations, would a win by President Trump help aerospace and defense contractors as much as expected? And if yes, could this bear market sub-sector turn into one of 2021’s winners?