经济学家认为由于Holiday Season的原因本周五的失业率报告将远好于预期！
A Shockingly Good Jobs Report Could Be on the Way
The jobs market may be far stronger than is widely believed, at least according to one economist. Andrew Zatlin‘s SouthBay Research is predicting that the January NFP number to be reported Friday will be more than three times the Bloomberg median survey of 70k and the whisper number of 87k. If he’s right, it would more than make up for December’s disappointing drop of 140k -- and potentially call into question the viability of a large fiscal stimulus package from Congress.
There are two major tailwinds driving Zatlin’s view. First, there was a bullish seasonal adjustment and fewer layoffs due to lean staffing. He noted that there won’t be the typical seasonal layoffs seen in leisure and hospitality because Covid restrictions were enacted in November -- so they were already been reported. And second, the coronavirus kept company payrolls from expanding as they typically do in advance of the holidays, so the broader post-holiday firings also didn’t happen.
In short, Zatlin predicts the numbers will be strong, but not enough to deter the Fed’s easing bias just yet. However, for members of Congress who are on the fence about more fiscal aid, it may be enough to question President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Ironically, an NFP beat of the magnitude Zatlin is predicting could quickly turn sour for markets as the prospects for a substantial economic assistance package dim a bit.
A Shockingly Good Jobs Report Could Be on the Way
The jobs market may be far stronger than is widely believed, at least according to one economist. Andrew Zatlin‘s SouthBay Research is predicting that the January NFP number to be reported Friday will be more than three times the Bloomberg median survey of 70k and the whisper number of 87k. If he’s right, it would more than make up for December’s disappointing drop of 140k -- and potentially call into question the viability of a large fiscal stimulus package from Congress.
There are two major tailwinds driving Zatlin’s view. First, there was a bullish seasonal adjustment and fewer layoffs due to lean staffing. He noted that there won’t be the typical seasonal layoffs seen in leisure and hospitality because Covid restrictions were enacted in November -- so they were already been reported. And second, the coronavirus kept company payrolls from expanding as they typically do in advance of the holidays, so the broader post-holiday firings also didn’t happen.
In short, Zatlin predicts the numbers will be strong, but not enough to deter the Fed’s easing bias just yet. However, for members of Congress who are on the fence about more fiscal aid, it may be enough to question President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Ironically, an NFP beat of the magnitude Zatlin is predicting could quickly turn sour for markets as the prospects for a substantial economic assistance package dim a bit.