Bloomberg的大盘Fair Value是3399. Unsteady prospects surrounding recovery and the 2020 election may weigh on risk tolerance and keep stocks consolidating spring gains in the near term, but our macro-derived model for the S&P 500 suggests Federal Reserve support will likely be enough to keep valuations elevated as stocks find their earnings footing. Our base-case scenario -- which assumes short-term interest rates remain extremely low, the yield curve widens slightly to 66 bps, credit spreads stay wide and EPS inches higher -- suggests stocks are fairly valued at 21.2x earnings. Meanwhile, earnings growth of 2.7% seems achievable as long as the economy keeps healing.
Our assumptions for macroeconomic recovery are extremely conservative, with limited recovery in employment conditions, durable-goods orders and commodity prices over the next 12 months. #stocktalk
Our assumptions for macroeconomic recovery are extremely conservative, with limited recovery in employment conditions, durable-goods orders and commodity prices over the next 12 months. #stocktalk