BofA Research对Uber/Grub结合的看法.注意卖方的报告看思路不是看结果
Uber Eats larger than Grub; similar valuation multiples
Uber disclosed that its Eats US bookings were $1.7bn in 4Q'19, larger than GRUB's at $1.5bn, also growing more rapidly at 44% y/y, vs. GRUB at 12% y/y. Recent disclosures suggest COVID-19 has increased the gap, with Uber Eats growing 89% y/y in April, while GRUB's April bookings growth was likely closer to 50%. That said, GRUB has been a uniquely profitable asset in the industry, as we project a 6.8% 2021 EBITDA margin for GRUB vs. Uber Eats EBITDA margin at -9%. GRUB's current $5.6bn TEV represents 0.7x 2021 bookings, a discount to our online transportation industry comps at 0.8x (see comp table on next page) and in-line with Uber at 0.7x 2021. Both Uber and GRUB are trading at 3.2x 2021 revenue (a discount to transportation comps at 4.2x), though GRUB's revenue includes fleet payout, which is netted out of revenue in Uber's financials, so GRUB would trade at a premium to Uber with adjustments. Uber is trading at 5.7x 2021 gross profit, vs. GRUB at 7.7x gross profit, both a discount to our transportation comps at 9.3x. We think a potential deal would put Uber/Grub at over 50% share of US market, and may have material potential cost synergies of value (over $200mn in Tech and G&A synergies).
Still see US industry rationalization as positive for Uber
Uber management has indicated an expectation for the US Eats market to consolidate over the next 18 months, and we continue to think a potential deal would be positive for industry margins and Uber; reiterate Buy on Uber. For Uber, interest in Grubhub if true suggests: 1) US consolidation and market share leadership is important and strategic to the company; 2) Uber is highly committed to food delivery (possibly paying $6bn for GRUB vs. a total market cap of $58bn); 3) Shows preference for a profitable company vs. private companies that are likely cash flow negative; 4) Suggests the company sees opportunity in decline of GRUB stock from ~$78 from July '19 highs to ~$47 before today's announcement. GRUB could also provide many more independent restaurants for Uber, a high-margin corporate business, and a high-margin take-out only business in NYC. We would expect regulators to look closely at markets where Uber/Grub have over 60% share and possibly request concessions (though OTAs were able to consolidate markets). Also, even if the reports are true on discussions, the two companies may not be able to come to an agreement on GRUB's value.
#stocktalk
Uber Eats larger than Grub; similar valuation multiples
Uber disclosed that its Eats US bookings were $1.7bn in 4Q'19, larger than GRUB's at $1.5bn, also growing more rapidly at 44% y/y, vs. GRUB at 12% y/y. Recent disclosures suggest COVID-19 has increased the gap, with Uber Eats growing 89% y/y in April, while GRUB's April bookings growth was likely closer to 50%. That said, GRUB has been a uniquely profitable asset in the industry, as we project a 6.8% 2021 EBITDA margin for GRUB vs. Uber Eats EBITDA margin at -9%. GRUB's current $5.6bn TEV represents 0.7x 2021 bookings, a discount to our online transportation industry comps at 0.8x (see comp table on next page) and in-line with Uber at 0.7x 2021. Both Uber and GRUB are trading at 3.2x 2021 revenue (a discount to transportation comps at 4.2x), though GRUB's revenue includes fleet payout, which is netted out of revenue in Uber's financials, so GRUB would trade at a premium to Uber with adjustments. Uber is trading at 5.7x 2021 gross profit, vs. GRUB at 7.7x gross profit, both a discount to our transportation comps at 9.3x. We think a potential deal would put Uber/Grub at over 50% share of US market, and may have material potential cost synergies of value (over $200mn in Tech and G&A synergies).
Still see US industry rationalization as positive for Uber
Uber management has indicated an expectation for the US Eats market to consolidate over the next 18 months, and we continue to think a potential deal would be positive for industry margins and Uber; reiterate Buy on Uber. For Uber, interest in Grubhub if true suggests: 1) US consolidation and market share leadership is important and strategic to the company; 2) Uber is highly committed to food delivery (possibly paying $6bn for GRUB vs. a total market cap of $58bn); 3) Shows preference for a profitable company vs. private companies that are likely cash flow negative; 4) Suggests the company sees opportunity in decline of GRUB stock from ~$78 from July '19 highs to ~$47 before today's announcement. GRUB could also provide many more independent restaurants for Uber, a high-margin corporate business, and a high-margin take-out only business in NYC. We would expect regulators to look closely at markets where Uber/Grub have over 60% share and possibly request concessions (though OTAs were able to consolidate markets). Also, even if the reports are true on discussions, the two companies may not be able to come to an agreement on GRUB's value.
#stocktalk