The decline in initial jobless claims was partially due to distortions coming from seasonal factors, including atypical timing of auto-plant shutdowns. Paired with reopening trends that also worked against normal patterns, this lowered seasonally adjusted claims filings in June at the expense of July, in our view. Still, a steep decline in unadjusted claims defies risks from the delta variant. In the post FOMC press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said infections have had less of an economic impact. Southern states have had the biggest surge in delta cases -- Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida. Yet the largest job gain in June occurred in Florida. Initial jobless claims fell in these states, implying little impact so far.