Bloomberg: The cyclical lows of the last two equity bear markets (Oct. 9, 2002, and March 9, 2009) came in the same months that credit-card delinquencies hit their peaks (our credit-card data starts in June 2002.) Given that a deterioration in consumer solvency (as indicated by credit-card delinquency) seems almost inevitable, there’s further reason for concern about a retail-led rally.