16年大选后黄金也跌了一段时间 Markets are "buying the rumor” on a Biden stimulus plan pretty hard at the moment. That sets up the risk of a correction if he wins.
The thesis is a throwback to the Trump trade: in October 2016, I polled every professional gold trader I could find on what a Clinton loss would mean, and the overwhelming consensus was a bullish move in bullion -- the likes of which had never been seen before. On Nov. 9, however, after a brief burst higher, the metal started going the other way. Over a period of about two months, holdings in exchange-traded funds dropped by 246 metric tons. Between Nov. 4 and Dec. 15, the price plunged 13.5%. That’s to say that even given the election result ahead of time, guessing the market reaction is a fool’s errand. Markets are right now pricing massive stimulus in the event of a Biden win. Whether that will equate to a rally on Nov. 4 is a different question.
The thesis is a throwback to the Trump trade: in October 2016, I polled every professional gold trader I could find on what a Clinton loss would mean, and the overwhelming consensus was a bullish move in bullion -- the likes of which had never been seen before. On Nov. 9, however, after a brief burst higher, the metal started going the other way. Over a period of about two months, holdings in exchange-traded funds dropped by 246 metric tons. Between Nov. 4 and Dec. 15, the price plunged 13.5%. That’s to say that even given the election result ahead of time, guessing the market reaction is a fool’s errand. Markets are right now pricing massive stimulus in the event of a Biden win. Whether that will equate to a rally on Nov. 4 is a different question.