FOMC Minute总结,一句话,美联储放水不停,还要拉着财政部一块来
The Fed saw a recovery in the works at last month’s meeting, but with several important caveats -- most notably that its forecast for ongoing growth assumed further significant fiscal stimulus. Indeed, participants agreed that in the absence of such measures the outlook will understandably be gloomier, according to minutes just released by the FOMC.
Moreover, the FOMC observed that while there’s capacity for banks to lend to good borrowers, there are a number of concerns about SME stress and potential difficulties for small banks. On inflation, they noted that it had been higher than expected recently but still subdued overall.
The headline that’s garnered attention is that forward guidance doesn’t represent an unconditional commitment to a particular path on interest rates. Specifically, that refers to the outcome-based guidance in the statement. It stands to reason that as the inputs to that guidance (labor market and inflation data) evolve, so too will the outlook for rates. As such, the text isn’t as hawkish as the headline might suggest.
On QE, there doesn’t seem to have been much, if any, discussion on extending the maturity of purchases.
All in, the message here is what we’ve heard from Powell elsewhere -- more fiscal action is needed. The “no firm commitment” headline is a little jarring, but makes sense in a fuller context. If I’m being honest, I don’t see a whole lot here that shifts things much.
The Fed saw a recovery in the works at last month’s meeting, but with several important caveats -- most notably that its forecast for ongoing growth assumed further significant fiscal stimulus. Indeed, participants agreed that in the absence of such measures the outlook will understandably be gloomier, according to minutes just released by the FOMC.
Moreover, the FOMC observed that while there’s capacity for banks to lend to good borrowers, there are a number of concerns about SME stress and potential difficulties for small banks. On inflation, they noted that it had been higher than expected recently but still subdued overall.
The headline that’s garnered attention is that forward guidance doesn’t represent an unconditional commitment to a particular path on interest rates. Specifically, that refers to the outcome-based guidance in the statement. It stands to reason that as the inputs to that guidance (labor market and inflation data) evolve, so too will the outlook for rates. As such, the text isn’t as hawkish as the headline might suggest.
On QE, there doesn’t seem to have been much, if any, discussion on extending the maturity of purchases.
All in, the message here is what we’ve heard from Powell elsewhere -- more fiscal action is needed. The “no firm commitment” headline is a little jarring, but makes sense in a fuller context. If I’m being honest, I don’t see a whole lot here that shifts things much.