In mid-term U.S. election years -- which happen every four years, when there’s no presidential election -- a gain for the index occurs even more frequently, regardless of election outcome.
SPX has gained in 39 out of the past Novembers, versus a drop in 17. There have been 14 years with mid-term elections. There were only two occasions when the party of the incumbent president won more House seats than it lost -- in 1998 and 2002, under Democrat Bill Clinton and then Republican George W. Bush. Yet the index rallied in 11 of those Novembers, and slipped in only three. The gauge rose ~6% in November in both 1998 and 2002.
The index has climbed 1.7% so far this month.
SPX has gained in 39 out of the past Novembers, versus a drop in 17. There have been 14 years with mid-term elections. There were only two occasions when the party of the incumbent president won more House seats than it lost -- in 1998 and 2002, under Democrat Bill Clinton and then Republican George W. Bush. Yet the index rallied in 11 of those Novembers, and slipped in only three. The gauge rose ~6% in November in both 1998 and 2002.
The index has climbed 1.7% so far this month.