股市大跌或有助于帮助两党达成新一轮刺激计划？
The White House says Democrats must reduce demands for state and local aid and for $600 a week in unemployment relief to restart the talks. Democrats say the White House must agree to $1 trillion in spending beyond the $1 trillion it already put on the table. President Donald Trump for the time being appears content to let his executive actions deferring payroll taxes and providing a $300 a week boost in unemployment aid to play out. With the stock market climbing toward all-time highs this month, there has been no pressure on him from that quarter lately.
“It may take a catalyst like a slide in the stock market to generate the political will necessary to pass legislation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
For the moment, Trump’s executive orders might be helping avoid a bigger slide. But economists including Zandi have flagged their difficulty of implementing them, along with insufficient size.
“Even if they were magically fully implemented today, retroactive to the start of this month, they would provide only a $400 billion boost to the economy by year’s end,” Zandi said. That’s “well short of the $1.5 trillion I estimate is necessary to avoid backtracking into recession.”
Neither side at this point is actively working on such a bill combining stimulus and agency funding. The fiscal 2021 appropriations process stalled in the Senate over the summer, when Democrats said they would attempt to add police reform and Covid relief riders to otherwise bipartisan funding bills. Republicans, fearing moderates in their caucus might peel off to back the moves, then suspended work on the 12 annual measures.
That means a stopgap spending bill to keep the government functioning beyond Oct. 1 is all but assured -- offering a hard deadline for action on stimulus.
Pelosi on Sunday shot down the idea of combining virus relief and the appropriations process on Sunday, saying negotiators must get back to the table before then.
“Well, we have to. We have to,” Pelosi said during an appearance on CNN.
The White House says Democrats must reduce demands for state and local aid and for $600 a week in unemployment relief to restart the talks. Democrats say the White House must agree to $1 trillion in spending beyond the $1 trillion it already put on the table. President Donald Trump for the time being appears content to let his executive actions deferring payroll taxes and providing a $300 a week boost in unemployment aid to play out. With the stock market climbing toward all-time highs this month, there has been no pressure on him from that quarter lately.
“It may take a catalyst like a slide in the stock market to generate the political will necessary to pass legislation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
For the moment, Trump’s executive orders might be helping avoid a bigger slide. But economists including Zandi have flagged their difficulty of implementing them, along with insufficient size.
“Even if they were magically fully implemented today, retroactive to the start of this month, they would provide only a $400 billion boost to the economy by year’s end,” Zandi said. That’s “well short of the $1.5 trillion I estimate is necessary to avoid backtracking into recession.”
Neither side at this point is actively working on such a bill combining stimulus and agency funding. The fiscal 2021 appropriations process stalled in the Senate over the summer, when Democrats said they would attempt to add police reform and Covid relief riders to otherwise bipartisan funding bills. Republicans, fearing moderates in their caucus might peel off to back the moves, then suspended work on the 12 annual measures.
That means a stopgap spending bill to keep the government functioning beyond Oct. 1 is all but assured -- offering a hard deadline for action on stimulus.
Pelosi on Sunday shot down the idea of combining virus relief and the appropriations process on Sunday, saying negotiators must get back to the table before then.
“Well, we have to. We have to,” Pelosi said during an appearance on CNN.