Four possible futures of China predicted in 2015 by Youwei, a pseudonym for a scholar based in China:
1. A new party might be born, one that could govern China with efficiency and benevolence. Policy reforms would continue, the country’s economic potential would be unleashed, and the resulting productivity and progress would boost the new party’s legitimacy and power. Such a future is unlikely.
2. The second and most likely future, at least in the short term, is a continuation of the status quo. This might be what we are experiencing.
3. The third possible future: democratization through a crisis. It has not emerged yet.
4. A fourth scenario—controlled and sequenced democratization—would be the best for China but is unfortunately unlikely.
Youwei. 2015. “The End of Reform in China.” Foreign Affairs 94 (3): 2–7. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2015-06-04/end-reform-china.
1. A new party might be born, one that could govern China with efficiency and benevolence. Policy reforms would continue, the country’s economic potential would be unleashed, and the resulting productivity and progress would boost the new party’s legitimacy and power. Such a future is unlikely.
2. The second and most likely future, at least in the short term, is a continuation of the status quo. This might be what we are experiencing.
3. The third possible future: democratization through a crisis. It has not emerged yet.
4. A fourth scenario—controlled and sequenced democratization—would be the best for China but is unfortunately unlikely.
Youwei. 2015. “The End of Reform in China.” Foreign Affairs 94 (3): 2–7. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2015-06-04/end-reform-china.