最近不少人都问我通胀了美联储会不会加息,减少债券购买,从而导致股市大跌。
结合美联储主席讲话的精神,我谈谈我的看法吧。
首先第一个问题是,大规模债务货币化会不会带来恶性通胀？答案是很有可能不会。疫情前,欧洲日本的宽松政策并没有带来大通胀,所以给美联储保持宽松政策带来了不少信心。
正如美联储主席所说,即使过去几年低失业率的时候也并没有带来大通胀:”So we saw that, for the last couple of years before the pandemic arrived. We had 3.5% unemployment, which was sort of the lowest period of sustained unemployment in 50 years. And we didn't see inflation result.”
他认为，与过去不一样的是，全球化和科技的发展抑制了通胀:”So, low and declining inflation has been a phenomenon really around the world for the last few decades. And it comes from a couple of factors. One just is that with globalization, things can be made anywhere, and that means it's difficult to raise wages or prices. So if you raise wage costs or prices, someone will find a cheaper place in the world to make a product or increasingly to deliver a service. And all of that is enabled by advancing technology. That's what has enabled globalization. So those factors are just very important in establishing a mindset where prices and wages don't go up. I mean, both wage and price inflation are a bit of a mental phenomenon. If people believe that prices will be pretty stable, then they will be — because they won't ask for very high wage increases and people who sell things won't be asking for high price increases. So, once that psychology sets in, it tends to perpetuate itself.”
美联储的职责在于增加就业和维持物价水平稳定。所以第二个问题是，现阶段，这两个，哪个目标对美联储更重要？
相对于通胀,美联储主席认为更关键的问题是就业率,而要恢复就业率需要多方面努力,其中就包括允许通胀的上升:”Maximum employment is not something that can be reduced to a number the way inflation can”. 所以美联储主席去年提出了average inflation targeting的概念,允许通胀上行浮动。
既然提高就业率是美联储当下的主要目标，那到底失业率降到多少算达到目标呢？虽然美联储主席没给出具体目标，但表示:”there was a lot to like about a 3.5% unemployment rate”.相对于现在6.7%的失业率，要达到疫情前3.5%的失业率可能还需要很长一段时间。
高通胀本身并不可怕,事实上,经济的高速增长几乎必然伴随着通胀的高增长。当必需生活品的物价上涨后，由于这些产品是刚需，需求并不会减少。所以会带动更多人创业，增加市场供应，从而创造更多就业机会。失业率减少，劳工市场供不应求就会带来工资上涨，抵消一部分通胀的负面影响。至于资本市场过热带来的泡沫，其实也是经济转型不可避免的一部分。比如说，科技股行情火热就会带动资本流入科技创新产业，从而推动更多创新公司的成立。哪怕其中大部分是泡沫，最后也会有一批真正创新的新创公司活下来，而这些新创公司往往带来了技术和商业上的革新，从而带动了一批新产业，提升了美国的经济竞争力。长期来看是好事。
最坏的结果是高通胀和高失业率同时存在,也就是”滞涨”。典型的例子就是美国上世纪七十年代。我认为相对于过去，现在的美国公司税是有全球竞争力的。加上美元贬值，会吸引更多外国资金投资美国，尤其是哪怕大放水也救不了经济的欧洲日本资金。这些投资会拉动美国经济恢复并降低失业率。
总结一下，大家可能最关心的是，什么时候美联储会开始考虑紧缩政策呢？我认为关注以下两个指标:
- 就业率是否快速上升
- 公司税到底加不加，加多少
结合美联储主席讲话的精神,我谈谈我的看法吧。
首先第一个问题是,大规模债务货币化会不会带来恶性通胀？答案是很有可能不会。疫情前,欧洲日本的宽松政策并没有带来大通胀,所以给美联储保持宽松政策带来了不少信心。
正如美联储主席所说,即使过去几年低失业率的时候也并没有带来大通胀:”So we saw that, for the last couple of years before the pandemic arrived. We had 3.5% unemployment, which was sort of the lowest period of sustained unemployment in 50 years. And we didn't see inflation result.”
他认为，与过去不一样的是，全球化和科技的发展抑制了通胀:”So, low and declining inflation has been a phenomenon really around the world for the last few decades. And it comes from a couple of factors. One just is that with globalization, things can be made anywhere, and that means it's difficult to raise wages or prices. So if you raise wage costs or prices, someone will find a cheaper place in the world to make a product or increasingly to deliver a service. And all of that is enabled by advancing technology. That's what has enabled globalization. So those factors are just very important in establishing a mindset where prices and wages don't go up. I mean, both wage and price inflation are a bit of a mental phenomenon. If people believe that prices will be pretty stable, then they will be — because they won't ask for very high wage increases and people who sell things won't be asking for high price increases. So, once that psychology sets in, it tends to perpetuate itself.”
美联储的职责在于增加就业和维持物价水平稳定。所以第二个问题是，现阶段，这两个，哪个目标对美联储更重要？
相对于通胀,美联储主席认为更关键的问题是就业率,而要恢复就业率需要多方面努力,其中就包括允许通胀的上升:”Maximum employment is not something that can be reduced to a number the way inflation can”. 所以美联储主席去年提出了average inflation targeting的概念,允许通胀上行浮动。
既然提高就业率是美联储当下的主要目标，那到底失业率降到多少算达到目标呢？虽然美联储主席没给出具体目标，但表示:”there was a lot to like about a 3.5% unemployment rate”.相对于现在6.7%的失业率，要达到疫情前3.5%的失业率可能还需要很长一段时间。
高通胀本身并不可怕,事实上,经济的高速增长几乎必然伴随着通胀的高增长。当必需生活品的物价上涨后，由于这些产品是刚需，需求并不会减少。所以会带动更多人创业，增加市场供应，从而创造更多就业机会。失业率减少，劳工市场供不应求就会带来工资上涨，抵消一部分通胀的负面影响。至于资本市场过热带来的泡沫，其实也是经济转型不可避免的一部分。比如说，科技股行情火热就会带动资本流入科技创新产业，从而推动更多创新公司的成立。哪怕其中大部分是泡沫，最后也会有一批真正创新的新创公司活下来，而这些新创公司往往带来了技术和商业上的革新，从而带动了一批新产业，提升了美国的经济竞争力。长期来看是好事。
最坏的结果是高通胀和高失业率同时存在,也就是”滞涨”。典型的例子就是美国上世纪七十年代。我认为相对于过去，现在的美国公司税是有全球竞争力的。加上美元贬值，会吸引更多外国资金投资美国，尤其是哪怕大放水也救不了经济的欧洲日本资金。这些投资会拉动美国经济恢复并降低失业率。
总结一下，大家可能最关心的是，什么时候美联储会开始考虑紧缩政策呢？我认为关注以下两个指标:
- 就业率是否快速上升
- 公司税到底加不加，加多少