下周三的通胀数据主要看市场怎么解读
Energy prices will feature prominently in the February CPI report. A continuing surge in gasoline prices will again drive headline consumer inflation at a faster pace relative to the core. Retail gasoline prices rose 7.1% in the month, which should translate into a two-tenths spread between the headline and core. Meanwhile, energy services (i.e. natural gas and electricity) are due to show some impact from surge-pricing during the mid-month cold snap which roiled the power grid in Texas, in particular, but had further-reaching impacts, as well.
Bloomberg Economics expects more muted price pressures elsewhere in the details. A stronger dollar already appears to be restraining CPI food, and if sustained will put downward pressure on CPI goods more broadly -- but not for a few more months. Typically, food prices are among the categories showing the shortest lag to currency moves.
The core CPI will continue to be drawn between accelerating goods prices and a decelerating trend in the larger, more important services basket; the latter of which has been unchanged for two consecutive months.
Bloomberg Economics remains of the view that narrow pockets of elevated demand and localized supply-chain disruptions will create price spikes in a limited subset of categories. However, the more dominant pressure on inflation will come from excess labor slack and soft household income creation. In particular, a key source of weakness over the next few quarters will be shelter costs, which account for roughly a third of the CPI basket.
Energy prices will feature prominently in the February CPI report. A continuing surge in gasoline prices will again drive headline consumer inflation at a faster pace relative to the core. Retail gasoline prices rose 7.1% in the month, which should translate into a two-tenths spread between the headline and core. Meanwhile, energy services (i.e. natural gas and electricity) are due to show some impact from surge-pricing during the mid-month cold snap which roiled the power grid in Texas, in particular, but had further-reaching impacts, as well.
Bloomberg Economics expects more muted price pressures elsewhere in the details. A stronger dollar already appears to be restraining CPI food, and if sustained will put downward pressure on CPI goods more broadly -- but not for a few more months. Typically, food prices are among the categories showing the shortest lag to currency moves.
The core CPI will continue to be drawn between accelerating goods prices and a decelerating trend in the larger, more important services basket; the latter of which has been unchanged for two consecutive months.
Bloomberg Economics remains of the view that narrow pockets of elevated demand and localized supply-chain disruptions will create price spikes in a limited subset of categories. However, the more dominant pressure on inflation will come from excess labor slack and soft household income creation. In particular, a key source of weakness over the next few quarters will be shelter costs, which account for roughly a third of the CPI basket.