资本利得税也很重要. If the gap between price gains and EPS growth as stocks priced in 2017 tax changes is any guide, we calculate the S&P 500's trailing P/E ratio may drop 3-4% to account for a possible increase in the statutory corporate tax rate under a new administration. In 2017, the index rose 19.4% and EPS grew 12%. As monetary policy was tightening that year as the balance sheet held steady and the Fed steadily raised rates, the 7.4-point gap between the two can be viewed as what investors priced into multiples at the time, anticipating the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, passed in December. A similar hit to the current 24.3x trailing P/E multiple would take the S&P 500 to 22.5x, but since the Biden plan implies an increase in the corporate tax rate half as large as the 2018 decline, we posit the P/E adjustment may be half as great.