最近很多人都关注债券曲线倒挂美国进入衰退的风险。过去曲线倒挂都没多久，如果美国不进入内乱和外战的话，这次曲线倒挂估计也不会持续多久。The last two times the curve inverted for more than a month, the U.S. economy fell into a recession which lasted 10-months beginning in March 2001 and 17-months beginning in December of 2007. But those inversions presented a boon for fixed income traders. Following the inversion of February 29, 2000, the 2s10s curve widened for 40 months from -9.5 bps to 266 bps in July of 2003. In December 2005, the curve widened for 72 months from -1.96 bps to 280 bps. Even the inversion of August 2019 lasted only one month and then widened to 120 bps in September of 2021.